New Cadanav methodology for quantitative rock fall hazard assessment and zoning at the local scale     

Jacopo M. Abbruzzese  Vincent Labiouse 《Landslides》2014,11(4):551-564

Rock fall hazard zoning is a challenging yet necessary task to be accomplished for planning an appropriate land use in mountainous areas. Methodologies currently adopted for elaborating zoning maps do not provide satisfactory results though, due to uncertainties and related assumptions characterising hazard assessment. The new Cadanav methodology, presented in this paper, aims at improving quantitative hazard assessment and zoning at the local scale, by reducing uncertainties mainly related to the technique for combining rock fall intensity and frequency of occurrence. Starting from available information on rock fall failure frequency and trajectory simulation results, the procedure merges in a strict way temporal frequency, probability of reach and energy data and evaluates the hazard degree by means of “hazard curves”. These curves are described at each point of the slope by a series of energy–return period couples representing the hazardous conditions which may possibly affect that location. The new Cadanav methodology is here detailed and compared to its original version. Hazard zoning results are illustrated along two different 2D slope profiles, for linear homogeneous cliff configurations, and according to the Swiss intensity–frequency diagram for rock fall hazard zoning. However, the procedure can be easily used with any other intensity–frequency diagram prescribed in national guidelines and, additionally, extended to problems involving 3D topographies.  相似文献   

Heavy metals in nearshore sediments of Kalpakkam,southeast coast of India   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

K. Deepthi  Usha Natesan  A. L. Muthulakshmi  Vincent A. Ferrer  V. P. Venugopalan  S. V. Narasimhan 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,72(3):717-729

Kalpakkam, a tiny fishing hamlet dotting the east coast, halfway between Chennai and Pondicherry has become prominent due to the Madras Atomic Power Station. The present study aims at assessing the spatial and temporal distribution pattern of heavy metals (Cd, Pb, Zn, Cu, Ni, Cr, and Fe) from 12 stations along the inner shelf of Bay of Bengal, India, during pre-monsoon (PRM), monsoon, and post-monsoon (POM) seasons. The order of occurrence of the metals in sediments of Kalpakkam is Cr > Zn > Ni > Cu > Pb > Cd (excluding Fe since unit is in %) and exhibits a unique seasonal pattern with the highest values (average) during POM except for Cd which shows highest (average) concentration during PRM. In order to determine the sample association according to their geochemical composition and their granulometric characteristics, a correlation matrix was generated and sediment pollution indices viz., sediment enrichment factor and geoaccumulation index were computed. The results confirm anthropogenic input of Cd to nearshore sediments of Kalpakkam. Sources of Cd can be attributed to dredging activities at Edaiyur, direct dumping and sewage sludge from anthropogenic activities, which reach the study area through the Buckingham Canal opening at the backwaters—Sadras and Edaiyur, and extreme use of antifouling paints by fishing trawlers.  相似文献   

Identification of Gleissberg Cycles and a Rising Trend in a 315-Year-Long Series of Sunspot Numbers     

Jean-Louis Le Mouël  Fernand Lopes  Vincent Courtillot 《Solar physics》2017,292(3):43

We show in this short note that the method of singular spectrum analysis (SSA) is able to clearly extract a strong, clean, and clear component from the longest available sunspot (International Sunspot Number, ISN) time series (1700?–?2015) that cannot be an artifact of the method and that can be safely identified as the Gleissberg cycle. This is not a small component, as it accounts for 13% of the total variance of the total original signal. Almost three and a half clear Gleissberg cycles are identified in the sunspot number series. Four extended solar minima (XSM) are determined by SSA, the latest around 2000 (Cycle 23/24 minimum). Several authors have argued in favor of a double-peaked structure for the Gleissberg cycle, with one peak between 55 and 59 years and another between 88 and 97 years. We find no evidence of the former: solar activity contains an important component that has undergone clear oscillations of \(\approx90\) years over the past three centuries, with some small but systematic longer-term evolution of “instantaneous” period and amplitude. Half of the variance of solar activity on these time scales can be satisfactorily reproduced as the sum of a monotonous multi-secular increase, a \(\approx90\)-year Gleissberg cycle, and a double-peaked (\(\approx10.0\) and 11.0 years) Schwabe cycle (the sum amounts to 46% of the total variance of the signal). The Gleissberg-cycle component definitely needs to be addressed when attempting to build dynamo models of solar activity. The first SSA component offers evidence of an increasing long-term trend in sunspot numbers, which is compatible with the existence of the modern grand maximum.  相似文献   

Continual long-term monitoring of methane in wells above the Utica Shale using total dissolved gas pressure probes     

Roy  James W.  Bordeleau  Genevi&#;ve  Rivard  Christine  Ryan  M. Cathryn  Malet  Xavier  Brown  Susan J.  Tremblay  Vincent 《Hydrogeology Journal》2022,30(3):1005-1019

Hydrogeology Journal - Monitoring of dissolved methane concentrations in groundwater is required to identify impacts from oil and gas development and to understand temporal variability under...  相似文献   

Deciphering neotectonics from river profile analysis in the karst Jura Mountains (northern Alpine foreland)     

Mickael Rabin  Christian Sue  Pierre G. Valla  Jean-Daniel Champagnac  Nicolas Carry  Vincent Bichet  Urs Eichenberger  Jacques Mudry 《Swiss Journal of Geoscience》2015,108(2-3):401-424

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An Overview of the Second Generation Adjusted Daily Precipitation Dataset for Trend Analysis in Canada     

Éva Mekis  Lucie A. Vincent 《大气与海洋》2013,51(2):163-177

A second generation adjusted precipitation daily dataset has been prepared for trend analysis in Canada. Daily rainfall and snowfall amounts have been adjusted for 464 stations for known measurement issues such as wind undercatch, evaporation and wetting losses for each type of rain-gauge, snow water equivalent from ruler measurements, trace observations and accumulated amounts from several days. Observations from nearby stations were sometimes combined to create time series that are longer; hence, making them more useful for trend studies. In this new version, daily adjustments are an improvement over the previous version because they are derived from an extended dataset and enhanced metadata knowledge. Datasets were updated to cover recent years, including 2009. The impact of the adjustments on rainfall and snowfall total amounts and trends was examined in detail. As a result of adjustments, total rainfall amounts have increased by 5 to 10% in southern Canada and by more than 20% in the Canadian Arctic, compared to the original observations, while the effect of the adjustments on snowfall were larger and more variable throughout the country. The slope of the rain trend lines decreased as a result of the larger correction applied to the older rain-gauges while the slope of the snow trend lines increased, mainly along the west coast and in the Arctic. Finally, annual and seasonal rainfall and snowfall trends based on the adjusted series were computed for 1950–2009 and 1900–2009. Overall, rainfall has increased across the country while a mix of non-significant increasing and decreasing trends was found during the summer in the Canadian Prairies. Snowfall has increased mainly in the north while a significant decrease was observed in the southwestern part of the country for 1950–2009.

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CMIP5 simulated climate conditions of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA). Part 1: contemporary climate     

Vincent O. Otieno  Richard O. Anyah 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(7-8):2081-2097

The present study is a preliminary interrogation of the ability of ten Earth System Models (ESMs) from the fifth phase of coupled model intercomparison project to characterize seasonal and annual mean precipitation cycle over the Greater Horn of Africa region. Each ESM had at least 2 ensemble members. In spite of distributional anomalies of observations, ESM ensemble means were examined on the basis of gridded precipitation data. Majority of the ten ESMs analyzed correctly reproduce the mean seasonal and annual cycle of precipitation for the period 1979–2008 as compared to gridded satellite-derived observations. At the same time our analysis shows significant biases in individual models depending on region and season. Specifically, a modest number of models were able to capture correctly the peaks of bimodal (MAM and OND) and JJAS rainfall while a few either dragged the onset to subsequent months or displaced the locations of seasonal rainfall further north. Nearly all models were in agreement with their representation of the zonal orientation of spatial pattern of the leading EOF rainfall modes; more so, enhanced precipitation over the Indian Ocean and a dipole mode of precipitation pattern are captured in the first and second mode respectively. Further, the corresponding EOF time series of the ESMs rainfall modes were all in phase with observations. However, all models output were positively biased against observations, with large medians and varied range of anomalies. Therefore, caution needs to be taken when choosing models for applications over the region, especially when ensemble means have to be considered.  相似文献   

Coasts, water levels, and climate change: A Great Lakes perspective     

Andrew D. Gronewold  Vincent Fortin  Brent Lofgren  Anne Clites  Craig A. Stow  Frank Quinn 《Climatic change》2013,120(4):697-711

The North American Laurentian Great Lakes hold nearly 20 % of the earth’s unfrozen fresh surface water and have a length of coastline, and a coastal population, comparable to frequently-studied marine coasts. The surface water elevations of the Great Lakes, in particular, are an ideal metric for understanding impacts of climate change on large hydrologic systems, and for assessing adaption measures for absorbing those impacts. In light of the importance of the Great Lakes to the North American and global economies, the Great Lakes and the surrounding region also serve as an important benchmark for hydroclimate research, and offer an example of successful adaptive management under changing climate conditions. Here, we communicate some of the important lessons to be learned from the Great Lakes by examining how the coastline, water level, and water budget dynamics of the Great Lakes relate to other large coastal systems, along with implications for water resource management strategies and climate scenario-derived projections of future conditions. This improved understanding fills a critical gap in freshwater and marine global coastal research.  相似文献   

Kuramoto Model of Nonlinear Coupled Oscillators as a Way for Understanding Phase Synchronization: Application to Solar and Geomagnetic Indices     

Elena M. Blanter  Jean-Louis Le Mouël  Mikhail G. Shnirman  Vincent Courtillot 《Solar physics》2014,289(11):4309-4333

We apply a Kuramoto model of nonlinear coupled oscillators to the simulation of slow variations of the phase difference between sunspot number [R _I ] and geomagnetic indices [aa and ζ]. The Kuramoto model is described for the particular case of two oscillators connected by symmetric coupling with quasi-stationary behavior, and its properties are investigated. By solving an inverse problem, we reconstruct the evolution of the couplings between pairs of indices [R _I and aa, R _I and ζ, aa and ζ], and interpret these in terms of the physics of the solar dynamo. The de-correlation between R _I and geomagnetic indices found in Solar Cycle 20 by Le Mouël et al. (J. Geophys. Res. 117, A09103, 2012) is successfully reproduced by the Kuramoto model and corresponds to the alternation of the leading oscillator. Application of the Kuramoto model to the cross-correlations [C(R _I ,ζ) and C(aa,ζ)] for ζ-indices computed in eight geomagnetic stations shows the latitudinal dependence of the mean phase difference. We discuss these results in terms of the solar-wind contribution to local geomagnetic indices [ζ].  相似文献   

Submm observations of herbig ae/be systems     

Vincent Mannings 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1995,224(1-2):185-188

Studies of circumstellar dust and gas in pre-main-sequence systems are in part motivated by a desire to probe possible sites of future or on-going planet formation and, should accretion onto young stars be taking place, to determine whether the observed remnants of embryonic envelopes might yet contribute significantly to the final masses of stars as they evolve towards the main sequence. New 0.35- to 1.3-mm flux measurements have been made for 13 intermediate-mass pre-MS systems in order to estimate total dust+gas masses and to investigate the spatial distribution of circumstellar material. At least two sources may be dominated by compact circumstellar disks; emission from extended envelopes appears to be important for the majority of sources. HD 163296 is an unusual object and warrants further examination.  相似文献